US-China Phase One Trade Deal: Challenges for Trade Expansion


by Josh Bramble, Global Risk Insights

February 21, 2021牋牋?


After a year since the United States and China signed the phase one trade deal agreement, it is evident there are several systemic challenges to its full implementation. China抯 decentralized governance, limitations in the deal抯 dispute resolution mechanism, and failure to address structural issues in the bilateral economic relationship limit the prospects of reaching phase one goals of trade expansion. The consequent market distortions may negatively impact international trading partners, whereas China抯 search for alternatives to US imports will hinder progress in subsequent negotiations.


Chapter Six of the US-China Economic and Trade Agreement, signed by former President Donald Trump and Vice Premier Liu He on January 15, 2020, stipulates that China agrees to import goods and services from the US that exceed 2017 levels by $200 billion over a two-year period. However, China抯 governance structures and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) interests complicate the implementation of the phase one agreement. Failure to reach specified targets risks decreasing the prospects of successful negotiations during the Biden Administration.


Economic Constraints ...


Limitations of the Trade Deal抯 Dispute Resolution Mechanism ...


Implications and Risks ...


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